The moat moved

Distribution / 2026+01 / 08

The moat moved.You’re guarding the old wall.

Distribution now starts inside the machine.

SWIPE →

Capability compression02 / 08

The product lead

Better output buys less time than it used to.

When comparable capability diffuses this fast, a model advantage is a window—not a wall.

AssumeCapability catches up.

CaptureWorkflow context others cannot see.

BuildA reason to return after parity.

Source: Stanford AI Index, 2025

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Market repricing03 / 08

The crowded trade

Capital crowded the category. It did not validate your moat.

60%+

of venture dollars on Carta went to AI companies in Q1 2026.

The harder diligence question:
How do you get chosen, installed, and used again?

Sources: Carta, 2026; Bessemer, 2025

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The new front door04 / 08

Where discovery lives

The user still decides. The agent increasingly shapes the shortlist.

Discovery can now happen after intent enters the machine, before a buyer visits your site.

Make legibleWhen the agent should call you.

Make usefulWhat action it can complete.

Make safeWhat permission and proof return.

Source: OpenAI, 2025

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The compound surfaces05 / 08

A distribution portfolio

Three surfaces compound. Each charges a different entry fee.

Inside
the agent

Entry feeEarn invocation with a useful, legible tool contract.

Inside
the workflow

Entry feeEarn installation where data and action already live.

Inside
the relationship

Entry feeEarn permission to reach the user directly.

200+

partners at the launch of Salesforce’s agent marketplace—with hundreds of agents.

Source: Salesforce, 2025

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What leaks06 / 08

Rented discovery

Reach leaks. Control compounds.

If a platform can answer before the click, your audience belongs to the interface first.

An audience you reach only through someone else’s answer box is reach—not control.

RentedThe platform owns ranking and access.

ControlledYou retain permission and repeat use.

Source: Pew Research Center, 2025

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Operator self-check07 / 08

Run the audit

Four uncomfortable questions.

Can an agent discover and invoke the product when intent begins?

Yes / No

Does the product become harder to remove once it enters the workflow?

Yes / No

Can the team reach users directly without buying the same attention again?

Yes / No

If a platform changes ranking or access tomorrow, does demand survive?

Yes / No

Mostly “no” means the product has reach, not distribution power.

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Distribution / 2026+08 / 08

The decision

The next moat is not another feature.

It is the right to be chosen.

A question for builders

If the agent becomes the front door, what earns your product that right?

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