Distribution / 2026+01 / 08

The moat moved.You’re guarding the old wall.

Distribution now starts inside the machine.
Capability compression02 / 08
The product lead

Better output buys less time than it used to.

SAME CAPABILITY THRESHOLD$20.00$0.07NOV 2022OCT 2024280×+ cheaperABOUT 18 MONTHS

When comparable capability diffuses this fast, a model advantage is a window—not a wall.

AssumeCapability catches up.
CaptureWorkflow context others cannot see.
BuildA reason to return after parity.
Source: Stanford AI Index, 2025
Market repricing03 / 08
The crowded trade

Capital crowded the category. It did not validate your moat.

60%+
of venture dollars on Carta went to AI companies in Q1 2026.
The harder diligence question:
How do you get chosen, installed, and used again?
Sources: Carta, 2026; Bessemer, 2025
The new front door04 / 08
Where discovery lives

The user still decides. The agent increasingly shapes the shortlist.

OLD PATHIntentSearchWebsiteProductNEW PATHIntentAgentSuggested toolAction800M+ user surface

Discovery can now happen after intent enters the machine, before a buyer visits your site.

Make legibleWhen the agent should call you.
Make usefulWhat action it can complete.
Make safeWhat permission and proof return.
Source: OpenAI, 2025
The compound surfaces05 / 08
A distribution portfolio

Three surfaces compound. Each charges a different entry fee.

1
Inside
the agent
Entry feeEarn invocation with a useful, legible tool contract.
2
Inside
the workflow
Entry feeEarn installation where data and action already live.
3
Inside
the relationship
Entry feeEarn permission to reach the user directly.
200+
partners at the launch of Salesforce’s agent marketplace—with hundreds of agents.
Source: Salesforce, 2025
What leaks06 / 08
Rented discovery

Reach leaks. Control compounds.

TRADITIONAL-RESULT CLICKSWITHOUT AI SUMMARYWITH AI SUMMARY15%8%THE ANSWER ARRIVES BEFORE THE CLICK

If a platform can answer before the click, your audience belongs to the interface first.

An audience you reach only through someone else’s answer box is reach—not control.

RentedThe platform owns ranking and access.
ControlledYou retain permission and repeat use.
Source: Pew Research Center, 2025
Operator self-check07 / 08
Run the audit

Four uncomfortable questions.

Can an agent discover and invoke the product when intent begins?
Yes / No
Does the product become harder to remove once it enters the workflow?
Yes / No
Can the team reach users directly without buying the same attention again?
Yes / No
If a platform changes ranking or access tomorrow, does demand survive?
Yes / No
Mostly “no” means the product has reach, not distribution power.
Distribution / 2026+08 / 08
The decision
The next moat is not another feature.

It is the right to be chosen.
A question for builders
If the agent becomes the front door, what earns your product that right?